Consumer spending comprises 70 percent of GDP, so big changes in consumer behavior bear directly on growth more than any other factor. Per the Bureau of Economic Analysis, total personal income in the U. This The statistics suggest that the economy is slowly emerging from the pandemic recession. But big unknowns remain. How much pent-up demand is there among consumers? Below, we explore those questions and the impact of federal stimulus policy on consumer activity. Following the initial outbreak last year, U. With restrictions on activities and certain business operations, consumers had fewer services to spend money on. The unemployment rate ballooned from 3. InAmericans spent over half a trillion dollars less on goods and services than incausing 2Q21 GDP to decrease by Yet personal disposable income increased significantly inindicating a large shift toward savings. Savings rose to historic highs during the pandemic. With Americans cutting back on spending, middle- and upper-income households, in particular, saved more money than any year in recent history. The story has been different for low-income households. After the first round of stimulus checks from the CARES Act, overall spending increases were largest among low-income individuals. Low-income households cut their spending less than high-income households did in the early part of the recovery; spending by low-income households returned to pre-pandemic levels in Septemberwith spending by high-income households lagging behind. Changes in spending patterns have Sims 4 Escort Mode uneven across economic sectors, as consumers have adjusted their purchasing behavior to pandemic-related restrictions. Declines in consumption are concentrated heavily in the service industryyet consumption in goods has had only modest and Sims 4 Escort Mode some cases non-existent declines. But spending on insurance, retail food and drink, housing, utilities and gas have all seen little or no negative impact in pandemic-era consumption. Economists expect that services like air travel, hotels, restaurants, and movie theaters will bounce back significantly in However, certain industries may take several years to fully recover, and many closed business operations will not return all. Anxiety around large crowds is partially responsible for the significant portion of Americans who believe the pandemic has permanently changed their spending habits. Consumers will likely continue to rely more on grocery services like Instacart and Amazon Fresh, telework, contactless services, and online shopping for some time. Many economists expect a strong economic comeback from the recession this year, with the Federal Reserve predicting a 6. As the pandemic abates, consumers will have more opportunities to spend on services that they may have been holding back on due to health restrictions in place or general uncertainty — leading to a faster recovery. Recent economic data suggest that this is beginning to take place. Consumer sentiment in April rose to its highest level since the beginning of the pandemic, and consumer spending, as noted above, increased at a strong clip in Q1 Wages and salaries increased by one percent in Q1 — up 2. Retail sales, which took a significant hit inwere up 9. How much pent-up demand is there in the economy? Spending on services continues to lag behind pre-pandemic levels, and as economist Jason Furman has pointed out, it is still unclear whether individuals will take more vacations or eat out more frequently this year to make up for lost services during the pandemic. A factor that will play Sims 4 Escort Mode key role in consumer demand this year is savings. The effect of this savings boom by consumers remains unclear. The accumulation in savings has been driven by the highest income earnersand since wealthier individuals are more likely in general to save more as a percentage of their income, the money saved up during the pandemic could be spent slowly. The opposite outcome could also result, since the savings buildup has been largest among older wealthy individuals — a group that is mostly vaccinated and has a higher propensity to spend on hospitality and leisure. The positive effects on consumption from enhanced unemployment benefits and direct stimulus paymentsdelivered through the CARES Act and American Rescue Plan, cannot be understated.
From Saving to Spending
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